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全球航空排放攻击

雷竞技手机版由罗伯特利曼贡献2019年。莱曼的生物可以阅读L竞技

加拿大和全球经济中没有部分逃脱了那些相信人类造成灾难性全球变暖的人的注意力,绝对一切都必须通过做减少温室气体(GHG)排放。到目前为止,他们的注意力越来越少,加拿大媒体覆盖着,是减少航空排放的运动。可能在未来几年内发生变化。

Globally, passenger and freight-related aviation accounts for about 2.5 % of GHG emissions. The percentage is higher in the wealthier, more industrialized countries. Aircraft are entirely dependent on oil-based fuels, and jet fuel consumed in 2018 totaled 12.8 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) of energy, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA’s most recent International Energy Outlook projects that world jet fuel consumption will grow to 17.7 Btu in 2030 and 29.4 Btu in 2050, making it one of the fastest growing sources of GHG emissions. To place that in context, by 2050 aviation may have risen to 3.5 % of global GHG emissions.

This prospect has gained great attention in the European Union. In Sweden, the outrage is so great that many people have adopted a new and interesting GHG mitigation technique. It is called “flight shaming”, the practice of naming and publicly shaming high profile individuals and companies that, from the perspective of climate alarm, have unduly and unnecessarily used aircraft to travel or to move freight. Flight shaming has become so widespread in Europe that it is adversely affecting the airlines and has increasingly shaped public policy. The German Aviation Association recently, and facetiously, examined a proposal to scrap all internal German flights if the national rail operator would facilitate an equally high speed service on the same routes.

自2012年以来,欧洲联盟已采用更昂贵的替代品。在欧洲排放交易系统(ETS)下,所有在欧洲运营的航空公司都需要监测,报告和验证其二氧化碳等效排放,并获得和投降抵御这些排放的津贴,从他们的航班中占据了一定程度的排放量年。实际上,通过强制航空公司购买排放抵消,欧盟施加了类似于二氧化碳税的成本。这支军队的航空公司要么减少飞行业务(可能)或筹集票价的排放。因此,预期越高的票价是驱动飞机使用的机制。

2016年10月国际民航组织(国际民航组织)同意为加拿大的一项决议(加拿大支持),以减少2021年的国际航空排放的措施。商定的决议列出了提议的目标和关键设计要素全球制度,以及完成实施工作的路线图。The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, aims to stabilize CO2 emissions at 2020 levels by requiring airlines to “offset” the growth of their emissions after 2020. The offsets would be achieved by having to purchase eligible emission units (i.e. similar to emission permits) in other sectors of the global economy. Although participation in the first phases of the scheme is voluntary for countries, the advocates claim that this will offset around 80% of the emissions above 2020 levels.

即使是此类计划的支持者也承认,抵消计划深受缺陷并且可能会失败。偏移计划需要充分供应减排项目,从中购买抵消许可,会计和验证系统,避免球拍和诈骗(如那些带来欧洲ETS的人),广泛参与,以免给予一些航空公司主要竞争优势。即使他们是工作,面对快速增长的航空运输需求,即使在航空排放的自由部分上放置硬帽的后果也将推动乘客和货运费,更高。

值得考虑在实践中的全面实施是什么意思。表1由EIA国际能源前景中的数据绘制,显示出当前预测选定国家和地区的客运旅行。

表格1

预计乘客航空旅行(亿收入 - 乘客英里)

国家/地区 2018年 2020. 2030. 2040.
美国 990 1,032 1,234 1,473
加拿大 150. 154. 184. 224
Europe 1,103 1,160. 1,509 1,912
中东 296. 308 426 600
中国 650. 739. 1,258 1,970
Southeast Asia 379. 435 823. 1,426
World 4,746 5,076 7,188 10,090

从这张表中可以观察到空气客运旅行被预计上升,不会落在所有地区。此外,2018年至2040年:

•过时了nger air travel in the U.S. and Canada is projected to grow in by 49%
•乘客航空旅行欧洲预计将增长73%
•过时了nger air travel in China is projected to grow by 205%
•世界乘客航空旅行预计将增长113%

为避免流量加倍(或三倍,在中国的情况下)将需要抵消,其成本很容易将航空票价增加到他们今天所在的几个倍数。空运是真的,这对于为远离商业中心的各国和社区的需求尤为重要。

One has to wonder whether, in the face of these obstacles, governments in western countries will press ahead with the CORSIA scheme when the developing countries (where all the emissions growth is occurring) almost certainly will not do so. The alternative to a CORSIA-like offset system is to increase domestic taxes, such as carbon dioxide taxes and special aviation-only taxes. Finally, if all else fails, governments might place hard cap restrictions on the growth in flights. This would require an elaborate regulatory system, including the setting of priorities for the allocation of rights to fly or to move freight by air, with all of the uncertainties and discretionary judgments that are part of any regulatory regime.

对于加拿大人曾经在全国范围内进行商业或逃到南方目的地进行中冬次休息,气候警报可能很快让他们面临“羞耻”,成本或帽子。人们只能想象将是多么受欢迎。

1条评论

  1. raybetAPP

    由于大多数加拿大人居住在200公里的美国边界范围内,将有充足的泄漏机会(除非美国采用类似的政策来推动航空票价)。我可以看到美国航空公司提供从布法罗和其他这样的美国城市的航班,以处理加拿大的乘客几乎在任何地方旅行。他们甚至可以提供廉价的班车服务。航空旅行业务将跨越边境,损害加拿大航空公司及其员工和股东。二氧化碳排放将保持不变。
    安德鲁罗马
    我的博客:https://andrewromanviews.blog.

    (由于我们的博客评论页面的技术错误,由FraybetAPPosadmin手动发布)

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